Monday, January 7, 2008

Fackcheck.org's a great spot!

If you haven't heard of Factcheck.org, you need to check it out. They go hunting down what's true and what's not in much of what the politicians have to say. In particular, they've written about the most recent debates that happened here in NH on Saturday night.

Alot of the latest postings for the Republicans are about things I heard and wrote about in the events I went to. The writeup is about the debate, but there was much repeated from their talking points. More info here. These are a few of the info bites that relate to things I also reported:

- Giuliani falsely blamed President Clinton for cuts in the military that occurred in large part under President George H.W. Bush and Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney. He said that “the Army had been at 725,000; it’s down to 500,000.” That’s true, but it was down to 572,423 by the time Clinton took office.

- Giuliani claimed that "economists" say health insurance rates would fall by up to 50 percent if millions more shopped for policies individually. Once again, his campaign was unable to produce a single economist who supports that figure.

- Romney claimed his Massachusetts state insurance program had reduced the number of uninsured in Massachusetts by 300,000. That’s the number who have gained coverage under the system, but many were covered previously through other means.

The Democratic Fackcheck.org article about the debate doesn't match up with specific talking points I heard in my event-attending (I wonder if it's because I saw them weeks before the debate so the talking points have changed), though it's still interesting. Here's a few of them, more are on the dem debate article page.

- Clinton repeated a misleading claim that the 2005 energy bill was "larded with all kinds of special interest breaks" for the oil industry. Actually, the bill resulted in a net increase in taxes on the oil industry, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service.

- Obama stated that U.S. medical care costs "twice as much per capita as any other advanced nation," which is incorrect. U.S. spending is double the average, but not double that of all others.

- Richardson said the price of gasoline in New Hampshire is at a record high. It's close, but lower than he said, and lower than it was a few weeks ago.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Campaign Report: Mike Huckabee, Sat. Jan 5

The Huckabee event I went to was not at all the format of the other events I went to. In fact, the event was actually being held for some local charities, so Huck and Chuck (as in Chuck Norris) were just special guests. This means the speech was focused on giving (sure to be inspirational with agreeable content) and there were no questions from the audience.

But I did get to see Huck and Chuck. Thus completing my effort to see all the candidates. Phew!

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There were a ton of people at this event. And the folks I was standing next to were die-hard Huckabee supporters. It seemed like most people were, actually.

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After some local politicians came up and explained the purpose of the event, the local charities each came up and explained what they do.

Then Huckabee got up. He's very funny.

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He started with jokes about how many people were there... Did we all take a shower? We already know the answer! This isn't a political event, we're here to celebrate these charities.

America is a great country and people act like neighbors. This isn't about the government, it's about what people do for their neighbors. We celebrate this spirit. This is a country where people lay down their lives for friends.

Many of us know we'll have food tonight, but millions in America live in hunger and poverty, and America doesn't even compare to the rest of the world. When calamity happens, who shows up the first and the most? The USA. He went to Pakistan after the earthquakes there and saw the devestation. When he met with relief agencies, 75% of them were Americans. Many guardsmen. Our soldiers don't just go where there is war, they also give life. When devestation happens, it's not about what we lose, it's about what we rediscover. In tornadoes in Arkansas, the people lost everything they had, but they were still thankful to have their lives and each other.

This country and our founding fathers believed in Independence. They would live as free citizens or die fighting for that. It is not about what we receive, it's about what we give. The NH motto, "Live free or die" is the summation of this. When John Hancock signed the Declaration of Independence, he didn't have an ego. He signed his name that big because he knew that if the experiment failed he would die, and he wanted them to come for him first. It was not ego, but valor that made him sign his name large.

And now you're being called upon to sign your names on checks. Long before the government gets involved, it's families, and neighbors, and churches that help people. And with these things, you don't need government help. Because before the government gives, it takes away. We'd rather do it ourselves! The handling charges from government are too innefiecient.

And so we celebrate the spriti of this country... volunteering and sacrifice. If everyone gave 10 cents out of their dollars, we wouldn't need government assistance. The government should be protecting us, not providing for us.

So then he goes on to introduce Chuck Norris, and gets funny again. "He could take you all out!"

I won't go into Chuck's part, but he does have this fabulous organization that helps young kids (10-13) get into martial arts to keep them out of trouble and give them discipline. Very cool.

Then Huck comes back. He talks about in other countries people could get into trouble for coming to events like this one. Freedom is an incredible gift. Freedom isn't free for everyone, but it is for us. He tells the story of a teacher who takes the desks out of the classrom. Kids are confused, they call their parents, the parents come and call the media. At the end of the day the kids don't know what they have to do to earn the desks. The teacher has vets bring the desks back. The kids don't have to earn their desks, the people who came before them did it for them. Thanks to the vets.

My take
I can't really judge candidate worthiness after this type of event at all. But Huckabee seems to have the same element of hope and focusing on common goals that I see at Obama events, in the sense that he's not interested in fear-mongering and doom. He's focused on what he sees is the future of America and what the great qualities of our country are. He did still manage to get plenty of message in about small government, etc, even in this "non-political" speech. And he's very funny and personable and finished the event jamming on the guitar with kids.

There were a ton of people at this thing, so even though he's low in the polls, I wonder if he'll have a bump from Iowa.

Campaign Report: Mitt Romney, Fri. Jan 4

I got to see Romney on Friday night, an "Ask Mitt Anything" event, which means town hall format (short speech, answering questions). He has proven to me that even politicians I dislike are much more palatable in a live in-person situation.

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Now that it's the weekend before the election, every event is packed and there's a ton more media. The Romney event was at a community center in Manchester, and I was glad I got there almost an hour early, because there were still plenty of seats to be had.

The media:
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The older couple next to me had lived in NH for ages, and were mostly decided for Romney, but not positive. The people behind me were a family from Baltimore who come up to NH for a weekend every 4 years just to see the candidates. The one woman said, "Huckabee is not conservative enough for me," and her father said, "I'm still looking for the next Ronald Reagan." Okay...

When the event kicked off, the Chair of the NH campaign welcomed us. He brought up Mitt, who also had his wife Ann, and their 2nd oldest son Matthew, plus two of his children. Ann spoke for a bit about how wonderful she thinks her husband is and getting through tough times. Also, they were high school sweethearts, which is always a nice story. Then Mitt took over.

Mitt's speech

He started with a joke about how unbiased his wife is. Then he thanked us for coming out on this cold NH evening.

He starts with how he got into the race. Ann and he thought about it and talked to some in-the-know friends and they said that he didn't have to decide early if he was actually going to run, but he did have to decide early if he wanted the possibility of running. He did, so they did the prep work for it. But it was a year ago around Christmas that the family was together and he asked them what they think. He went around to each child, and although everyone had personal concerns, they felt that his experiences and values meant he should do it. He had a responsibility to run.

He thinks it may seem odd to people that an "unknown" would run, a Republican from MA (and how odd is that). But he's been going around the country and hears similar themes. People are angry, and frustrated with Washington. And it's not just the president or congress, it's all of it. People are asking the same questions they've been asking for the last 20 years. Washington has failed to DO something about these issues for all this time. Health care, gas prices, etc... all the same issues.

He's not a politician, he's a business man. Washington is broken and it needs to be fixed. In MA he was able to bring Democrats and Republicans together to get a balanced budget. They solved a budget gap, didn't raise taxes, put a billion into the rainy day fund. States are able to do all of these things, but Washington is broken. And sending the same people to DC, just to different chairs, won't change a thing.

He knows how to change things. He doesn't know every answer, but he knows how to get answers and use organizations to get things done.

His background is unusal. He didn't know he was going to get into politics. He started in the private sector. He met up with somebody who had an idea for a discount supply store for office supplies. Most people he talked to hated the idea. But they did it and Staples is gigantic now. One idea can change an industry.

A few years later, the Olympics committee called him. They were losing money and not on schedule and asked for his help. He didn't know sporting events, but he did know how to tackle problems. He figures out a problem, decides what's in/out with the resources available to solve that problem, establishes benchmarks to be met, and gets it done.

Later the man who he established Staples came to him and said that everyone should have health insurance. Mitt's first reaction was "impossible". But then he started to think about it, how it would help people, and he got together a team of people to discuss it: an MIT professor, a consultant, actuaries... and he brought in the democratic-run state legislature to work together. They passed the law 198-2. They used concensus to get things done. When they created the bill, 460,000 people were uninsured. Now at least 300,000 of them have signed up for health insurance in MA.

The others talk and talk and it doesn't happen. I will solve the problem of illegal immigration, bring taxes down (and simplify the tax code), shrink spending, improve schools, get health insurance affortable and portable for everyone, complete Iraq and help Muslims reject the extremism that breeds terrorism.

Here's what I see from Iowa... McCain, Thompson, and Guiliani are big, big names and they were all beat. McCain and Clinton were rejected because they were the "same old". The caucuses were about change. People want to bring change and solve the problems. After four years in the white house, people won't say "Why didn't he get anything done" they'll say, "How did we get so much done?"

Questions and Answers
Q: [Prepared statement by a doctor and his doctor wife] We need to strengthen families by helping mothers... there's a loophole where women can't stay home to take care of kids because of how Social Security disability works. Will you close this loophole?
A: I need to see the plan first! I can't just stand up here and say, "ooo, the audience likes this so I'll say yes." What's the cost? What are the alternatives? Can private solutions help? We need to shy away from federal government stepping in when the private sector can help. It's an issue I'll need to look at and study the need. If there is a gap, once we have the solutions then government can step in to fill in those gaps. For example, the biggest gap right now is the veterans. There's a lot of catch-22's. The National Guard has people who aren't on active duty, but they're not considered vets. We don't want European-style socialized state happenings. But we do need to fill anomolies and gaps with gov't assistance.

Q: My 9 year-old talks about you all the time. I'm an undecided voter and I would like to know, if you had the chance to vote for somebody who agreed with you 100% religiously or a candidate that didn't agree with you religiously 100% but was a strong candidate, who would you vote for?
A: [If I were him I would have said, "I'd vote for me!" :)] Joke about how this is a "very theoretical discussion, right?" The history of our country is filled with presidents of different beliefs: Unitarians, Quakers, Deists... everyone has a Judeo-Christian set of values. And by that I mean we all have the same maker, and we all believe we are brothers/sisters who care for one another. This is what the American culture is founded on. The creator gave us all rights. The right of liberty comes from the creator, not from government. And so I would ask, how has this candidate manifested these values? The details about the timing of the second coming, or what color so-and-so is wearing at the second coming are not important. In fact, if we start focusing on that kind of thing, we'll end up like Shia/Sunni. We don't judge based on religion here. Article 6 of the constitution says there is no religious test [Applause]. And the founders beliefs are right for me.

Q: Energy sources that are clean?
A: Jimmy Carter said something about this all those years ago. We ned to make sacrifices to get there. But that's not going to solve everything. And we can't have 60% of our energy coming from other nations. $1 billion/day is going to Iran/Venezuela/Russia/Saudi Arabia. We don't want to stake our kids future on the good will of these countries! Also, we're warming the planet this way. We need to develop our own sources for clean energy. Look into nuclear. We'll probably have to hire French because 80% of their energy comes from nuclear and we no longer have the expertise. Clean coal, using coal to pump CO2 into the ground to get oil out. Renewable things like hydrogen cell. We need far more efficient cars/homes/lighting fixtures. 1% of the fuel used for a car is actually for moving the car forward, the rest is getting the car pieces working. We need a national effort on all this. Also, we need more money to go into the sciences. Investment into the public and private sectors for technology.

Q: College student is worried about being able to get a job when he graduates.
A: This is a generational question. In the "Greatest Generation" by Tom Brokaw, you hear about that age of people. It makes me ask, "what will they say about my generation?" I want us to leave behind a strong and vibrant economy and I know how to do it first hand. 25 years in private sector, working around the world... I'm the only candidate who has actually signed employment checks. I know how to strengthen the economy, I didn't raise taxes, and bring the burden down on regular people [Applause]. We need to make immigration work FOR us. Welcome those who come legally, and no more illegals. We need energy independence. The democrats will say that a trade barrier is needed because we can't compete with China and India. But our goods need to go there for us to compete. Otherwise we'll fall behind and our products will be like the Yugo. We need to invest in brain power and technology. Sometimes things aren't fair, like China's currency standard, and we need to be tough and aggressive to handle those issues and make sure it's fair. Also we need to have the best schools and invest in education and higher education.

Q: Nat'l security. Al Qaeda is planning 5, 10, 15 years ahead and we're firing interpreter because they're gay. Why?
A: The military is using don't ask, don't tell. I agree with this policy. It's working. On the subject of Iraq, the dems just want to take the troops out. But it's not just iraq that we need to worry about. Taking troops out will lead to Al Qaeda dominating Iraq. We need to secure Iraq agains Al Qaeda or Hezbollah taking over. Bush and we know that mistakes were made in Iraq, but he has kept us safe and we owe him a debt of gratitude.

Q: Term limits in Congress... will you support them?
A: Yes. There are pros and cons but we can't have the sense of royalty that some have. it leads to a lack of progress, egos, and not looking for a common ground. In MA, I worked closely with the state legislature (Tom Finneran, Bob Traveling (sp?)) and we all wanted to do good things. We had common ground to get things done and make this better. I respect all democrats and republicans. Hey, democrats love America to. Reagan joke about liberals "what they know is wrong". Story about in MA they had to do either a tax hike or refund, so he pulls some shenanigans to make sure it was a refund.

He knows how to solve the challenges he will face. Doing the same thing expecting different results is the definition of foolishness, and that's what electing the same people will be. I am not furthering my political career. I don't have a political career. I want to leave my children and grandchildren with a better country.

My take
Okay, given that I would never vote for him because of our difference in beliefs on issues, here's my mostly non-partisan feel about how he is. His pitch about knowing how to problem-solve is quite compelling when you're sitting in the room with him. And his experience on big problems in the private sector adds a basis for believing what he says. But I'm not sure I believe "I'm not furthering my political career" and I don't really think there's any reason to thank Bush. I'd argue that the reason Al Qaeda is in Iraq is because of what Bush has done there... they weren't there before!

But Romney is far more of an agreeable personality in person than he is on tv. No doubt about it, I think people who lean his way and then see him in person will absolutely be swayed, as the older gentleman I was sitting next to was. On our way out he said, "Where's my ballot!"

On a more personal note, I always found Romney really slimy before. I think mainly because he said/did many things to get elected as a governor of a very democratic state. And now he's seemingly on the other side of all these issues as a stand-up conservative. What's that about? How can you trust somebody who's switched so drastically? Maybe we'll find out.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Bingo!

I did it! I saw Mitt Romney last night and Mike Huckabee this morning, completing my dance-card of the top four candidates on both sides. Phew! How exhausting! I have not had a chance to write up everything for these two events yet, but I have posted all of my pictures from all of the events on flickr, so feel free to take a look. Some of my favorite latest photos are of the media and group shots.

Link to Flickr campaign group

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CT ABC dude and camera

I was also interviewed by a Seattle-based radio talk show, and I got a poll call from Gallup today. 3 days left before this place is a ghost town!

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Rudy Guiliani, Wed. Jan 2, 2008

Guiliani is shorter than I thought he'd be.

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I went up to a small American Legion building to see Rudy this evening. There was a fair bit of media:

The media sets up for Guiliani

I talked to a nice man from Auburn (hi Everett!) while we waited for the main attraction. The introducer showed the latest Guiliani ad, about 9/11, comparing our response to how the US handled WWII (don't mess with democracy, because we may disagree with each other, but we come together as a strong nation when threatened). When Rudy (I'm just calling him as his banners and signs do... "RUDY08") came in, he gave a bit of a speech, mostly about the war on terror and how to handle it, then answered some questions, a pretty standard format.

He began by thanking his worker-bees. Then he talks about his 12 commitments, and the 1st is to keep America on the offense against terrorism. He thinks its an important issue of the campaign and of today. We didn't ask for this, and it's an external threat, but here it is and we need to stand up tyrants and terrorists.

In our history, we've had times where we didn't see the threats coming. We need to learn from history. We need to have strength in the face of threats against us.

We need a strong military. Even stronger than we have now. They need to be able to face two challenges: 1) Islamic terrorists around the world 2) any nation that might challeng us (makes a reference to the cold war and how we basically "won" by outspending the USSR on military). We want to keep countries like China on "a peaceful rise".

We need to make up for the mistake in the '90's that Clinton did. The Peace Dividend. This cut the military... reductions in size, preparedness, cuts in intelligence. We've not made up for it yet. We should increase the Army by at least 10 brigades, the Marines should get up to 200,000 or more, the Air Force needs to have modern fighters, Navy 300+ ships, and we need to support the Coast Guard, who are now a main branch of homeland security. And Homeland Security really is a new concept for us, isnt' it?

We need to, in this country, set objectives and accomplish them. For Iraq, the goal is to have a stable country that is an ally. The Democratic plan of withdrawal would be a setback. We need to make sure Iran does not become a nuclear power. We need to complete the work of 2001/2002 in Afghanistan. We should increase the troops there (probably double them), and generally put more emphasis there. Why? Because we need to make sure Al Qaeda and the Taliban do not reimerge. Also, fixing Afghanistan will help with the stability in Pakistan. We need to be sure that Pakistan remains stable and moves toward democracy. The people that killed Bhutto were not just assassinating her, they were trying to thwart democracy.

We need to find out about attacks before they occur, and this means supporting the police. The police and fire fighters are the first responders to terrorist attacks, and the police also need to be "first preventers", being aware of suspicious activity.

We need to win this war on the power of our ideas. Our ideas are superior... freedom, choosing people who govern us, respect for women, human rights, life... This is not a war about boundary or territory. It's a war about ideas, and the ideas that the terrorists have perverted. What we stand for is in direct conflict to what they believe. The essense of this example is the freedom of religion, it's what our country was founded on [talks about history a bit].

We need to be open to business and cultural exchange with the middle east. We need to show them that we don't have narrow thinking about such things.

In NYC on 9/11, I told the city not to blame a specific ethnic/religious group. If we fall into that trap, we'd be practicing what we detest. We need to learn to reach out. We need to find commonalities. We have a lot in common as people!

America is not a country that likes war. We only do it if we are under attack or perceive a threat (then we'll do it preemptively). But America isn't about war, we're a country who wants to sell you something!

We need to show them that we are about greatness, love... we want to get past the grievances and move on to constructive engagements [talks about history again, building up with countries we formerly had conflict with].

Back to the cold war, when I saw that Soviets were buying US jeans, McDonalds, and Coke, he knew we were about to win. Human beings are all similar and we have to work on that commonality.

This issue is just 1 of his 12 commitments, but it is the topic for today. Of course he has things on immigration, health care, education... But now it's time for questions.

Q: Surge in Afghanistan. Is it just a police mission or an offensive method?
A: Get rid of them [Taliban and Al Qaeda]. Of course I'd defer to the defense experts for exactly how that would happen, but we need to root them out. This is based on reports that they've reimerged. And just like Iraq, Afghanistan needs to be stable and an ally, particularly with what's happening in Pakistan.

Q followup: I'm concerned about policing there
A: I think the military needs to have a hybrid force, trained in reestablishing civil societies. The success in Iraq is 2003 is probably why Iran stopped their Nuke program. We need to learn from our mistakes [he says this alot]. For example, the surge in Iraq is working better than anyone thought, even the Dems admit that. And it's partly because we gained so much knowledge and learned from it.

Q: What's the difference between you and Sen. McCain in a nutshell?
A: I like John McCain... He's a friend, a hero, and a good man. But I have assets, too. I have experience in executive positions in goverment. I dealth with lots of crises in NYC (not just 9/11). I've dealth with foreign policy and negotiations. I am good at fiscal conservatism... I ran a gov't where grown was reducted, we increased police and teachers, and shrunk everything else. We also reduced taxes. NYC is the 17th largest economy in the world, so fiscal responsibility there is on a large scale. No more death tax, keep taxes low... the democrats want to increase them. I am equiped to handle a terrorist war and the national economy at the same time. And Americans really tend to prefer people with executive experience. The other Republicans are all qualified, but this is my pitch.

Q: (this is Everett!) Welcome to Red Sox nation! [lots of laughing] Talk about immigration, the people who are already here.
A: [he really skirter around this, sticking to "keeping people out" for a while before getting to it] Set up a fence (a high tech fence, not physical). Set up border statistics system to check patrol on success. Provide a tamper-proof ID card for legal immigrants (fingerprint and photo). [prodding about the people currently here] We can't take care of the people here until we stop the inflow. And of course we can put the criminal illegals out of the country right away. But once the borders are secure, then we ask the illegal immigrants here to get an ID card... then they pay taxes and are above-board. Anyone who doesn't do that, we kick them out. This will solve the problem of companies hiring people on phony identities, which is a big problem. Then, if the illegal immigrants are paying tax, if they want to be citizens, they wait at the back of the line behind legal immigrants, and they also must learn English.

[I like the way he said this point] In this way we can keep our heritage, uplift us with that history, but also assimilate people into our culture.

Q: Healthcare. He's a long term care worker and sees lots of poor care, but doesn't see how our country can pay for everything.
A: Everyone knows that health care and health insurance is too expensive. EVERYONE agrees on this. [That's just what Obama said!] The question is how can we get to a low price and keep or increase the quality of service? Not through gov't mandate or price control. It's like a puzzle, isn't it? I think it should be the consumer market... if lots of people want to buy it, the price goes down. There's no consumer market for insurance right now, it's only about 15 million people that buy their own insurance. If we increase that to 50-60 million, the price will come down and we'll retain quality. [Then he talks about cost and a tax break for paying for it and an HSA for the leftover money... didn't quite follow the whole thing]. And you should be able to buy it from anywhere in the country, not just your state.

Q: Energy plan? How would global warming solutions be a part of that?
A: The most important thing is energy independence... We should go after this goal like putting a man on the moon. Conservation is also a big this, but that only makes a dent. And India and China still need lots of energy so our being part of Kyoto treaty won't help when other countries still need all that energy. So biofuels, nuclear power (cites France), carbon sequestration, hybrid vehicles, wind, solar, hydroelectric... all that needs to go up a bit to help. Also we need more domestic oil, because we still need oil. And we need more domestic refineries so we're not stuck with pipelines. And clean coal.

Q: Military. people in their 40's and 50's want to sign up. Can we change the policy? I figure if you can do boot camp, you can do it.
A: The polics in NYC used to have that policy, and I left it up to them to determine their needs. That's something that the Army would have to decide. I would look into it, but I don't think I could make that judgement.

Q: Antiterror is big. Who's your secretary of state? Or which ones in the past do you admire?
A: George Schultz, Casper Weinberger, Henry Kissenger, Colin Powell, Cheney... too many names in the various cabinet positions, and I'm not declaring who I'd ask. But I'll start with what am I looking for in a VP? They need to be ready and able to serve as president. They need to be a partner in the administration. [Story about 9/11 and a phone call with Cheney and how he felt Cheney knew what he was doing]. For Sec of State/Defense, it's about balancing personalities and advice. Of course there's always Lincoln's way [Recommends a book "Team of Rivals" I think] of putting your same-party opponents in your cabinet! Honestly, I haven't thought about who would be in my cabinet.

And then he said thanks and shook a few hands on his way out.

My take:
The biggest thing I got out of this was an actual explanation of the health care solution being put forth. It was so refreshing to hear something besides "Socialized medicine is bad!" I actually had something for my brain to chew on in that one. And in general, I liked his logical, problem-solving manner of explaining things. I certainly see how moderate folks can lean his direction. I forgot to count the times he mentioned 9/11 but it was pretty numerous, which is one of the reasons my NJ cousins seem to dislike him. Still, he was well spoken and handled the questions with poise... I enjoyed the experience of seeing him.

Next up will be Romney and Huckabee, hopefully a Friday/Saturday combo! I'll try to take photos of Chuck Norris, too!